In Defense of Defense: Why Canada Must Bolster Its Military Might and Reduce Reliance on the United States
In an era of escalating global tensions, shifting national alignments, and emerging threats, Canada stands at a critical juncture in its defense policy. For decades, the nation has relied heavily on its southern neighbor, the United States, for security through shared commitments like NATO and NORAD. However, the changing geopolitical landscape—marked by great power competition, hybrid warfare, and increasing unpredictability in international alliances—demands that Canada significantly increase its defense spending and strengthen its military capabilities. By investing in a robust, self-reliant defense posture, Canada can protect its sovereignty, enhance its global influence, and contribute meaningfully to collective security without over-depending on the United States. This article explores the imperatives driving Canada’s need to bolster its military, the risks of excessive reliance on the U.S., and the strategic and economic benefits of a revitalized defense strategy, all within the context of global conflicts and shifting national alignments.
The Global Security Landscape: A New Era of Threats
The post-Cold War era of relative stability has given way to a volatile world characterized by great power competition and hybrid threats. Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, coupled with its investments in hypersonic missiles and Arctic militarization, poses a direct challenge to NATO’s security framework. China’s rapid military expansion, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, and its assertive policies in the South China Sea threaten global trade routes and democratic values. Meanwhile, non-state actors, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns—often backed by authoritarian regimes—blur the lines between war and peace, creating a complex threat environment that demands agile and well-funded militaries.
Canada, with its vast geography and strategic Arctic frontier, is not immune to these threats. The Arctic, rich in resources and increasingly navigable due to climate change, is a focal point for great power competition. Russia and China have both expanded their Arctic presence, with Russia deploying advanced military assets and China investing in polar infrastructure. Canada’s limited Arctic capabilities—lacking sufficient icebreakers, patrol aircraft, and permanent military infrastructure—leave it vulnerable to foreign encroachment. Strengthening the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is essential to assert sovereignty in this critical region and deter potential adversaries.
Global conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, underscore the need for robust defense capabilities. The conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in NATO’s warfighting readiness, with many allies, including Canada, struggling to maintain adequate equipment and personnel levels. Britain’s 2025 Strategic Defence Review, for instance, emphasized the need to prepare for war after decades of complacency, a lesson Canada must heed. The proliferation of advanced technologies like drones, AI-driven warfare, and hypersonic missiles further complicates the security landscape, requiring significant investments in modern systems to remain competitive.
Canada’s Current Defense Posture: A Case for Urgent Reform
Canada’s defense spending, currently around 1.4% of GDP, falls well below NATO’s 2% target and is inadequate to address 21st-century threats. Decades of underfunding have left the CAF with significant capability gaps: only 40% of the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) inventory is serviceable, the Royal Canadian Navy (RCN) operates with just one seaworthy submarine, and the Canadian Army lacks modern tanks and air defense systems. Personnel shortages exacerbate these issues, with the CAF 14,000 members short of its authorized strength, particularly in critical areas like cyber warfare and technical trades.
The National Shipbuilding Strategy (NSS), launched in 2010, exemplifies the challenges of Canada’s defense procurement. Projects like the River-class warships are years behind schedule and billions over budget, with costs now projected to exceed $100 billion. Similarly, the RCAF’s F-35 procurement, initially budgeted at $19 billion, is now estimated at $27.7 billion, with infrastructure upgrades lagging and pilot shortages looming. These inefficiencies highlight the need for a streamlined procurement system and increased funding to deliver modern capabilities on time.
Canada’s reliance on the United States for defense has further compounded these shortcomings. Through NORAD and NATO, the U.S. has historically shouldered much of the burden for North American security, allowing Canada to maintain a leaner military. However, this dependence is increasingly untenable as the U.S. faces its own challenges, including domestic political polarization and a shift toward isolationism under leaders like President Donald Trump. Trump’s demands for NATO allies to increase spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, coupled with threats of economic penalties, signal a transactional approach to alliances that could leave Canada exposed if it fails to bolster its own capabilities.
The Risks of Over-Dependence on the United States
Canada’s heavy reliance on the United States for defense carries significant risks, particularly in light of shifting national alignments. The U.S. is undergoing internal challenges, including economic pressures and a growing isolationist sentiment, which raise questions about its long-term commitment to collective security. Trump’s equivocation on NATO’s Article 5—the mutual defense clause—underscores the uncertainty of U.S. support in a crisis. As Prime Minister Mark Carney noted, “The United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony,” charging for access to markets and reducing its contributions to collective security.
This shift necessitates a more self-reliant Canadian defense posture. Over-dependence on the U.S. risks compromising Canada’s sovereignty, particularly in the Arctic, where American interests may not align fully with Canadian priorities. For instance, the U.S. has historically viewed the Northwest Passage as an international waterway, while Canada asserts it as internal waters. A stronger CAF would enable Canada to defend its territorial claims independently, reducing the need to defer to U.S. strategic priorities.
Moreover, Canada’s economic ties with the U.S.—with 75% of defense capital spending directed to American firms like Lockheed Martin—limit its strategic autonomy. Diversifying procurement to include European or Canadian suppliers, such as exploring alternatives to the F-35 or purchasing South Korean submarines, would reduce this dependency while fostering domestic innovation. Carney’s discussions with European allies about fighter jets and submarines signal a strategic pivot toward broader partnerships, aligning with initiatives like the Rearm Europe program.
The Case for Increased Defense Spending
Meeting NATO Commitments and Enhancing Deterrence
Canada’s commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by April 2026, with an additional $9 billion allocated this fiscal year, is a step in the right direction. However, the proposed NATO target of 5% by 2035—3.5% for core military spending and 1.5% for infrastructure—reflects the scale of investment needed to address global threats. For Canada, this would translate to $150 billion annually, a significant but necessary commitment to modernize the CAF and assert sovereignty.
Increased spending would enhance deterrence by signaling to adversaries that Canada is serious about its security. As Carney noted, the NATO agreement “substantially” strengthens the alliance’s deterrence effect, particularly against Russia and China. Investments in Arctic surveillance, such as over-the-horizon radar and underwater sensors, would bolster Canada’s ability to monitor and defend its northern frontier. Similarly, modernizing the RCAF with new fighter jets and acquiring conventionally powered submarines would enhance Canada’s contribution to NATO and NORAD, making it a more reliable partner.
Economic and Industrial Benefits
Defense spending is not merely a security imperative; it is an economic opportunity. Prime Minister Carney has reframed military investment as a driver of economic resilience, creating high-skilled jobs in aerospace, shipbuilding, and technology. By prioritizing Canadian suppliers, such as Bombardier or CAE, the government can stimulate domestic industries and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. For example, investing in Canadian-made early warning aircraft or Arctic-capable drones could foster innovation and create thousands of jobs in provinces like Quebec and Ontario.
The economic spillover from defense investments mirrors the U.S. Cold War model, where Pentagon spending drove advancements in computing and aerospace. In Canada, a similar approach could support dual-use technologies with civilian applications, such as AI and cybersecurity systems. The $560 million allocated to the CAF Cyber Command this year is a prime example, enhancing both military and civilian digital infrastructure. By aligning defense spending with economic goals, Canada can achieve what Carney calls “strategic productivism,” harmonizing security and prosperity.
Strengthening National Sovereignty and International Influence
A stronger military enhances Canada’s sovereignty and global influence. In the Arctic, investments in icebreakers, patrol aircraft, and underwater surveillance systems would assert Canada’s territorial claims against Russian and Chinese encroachment. The failure to develop a deep-water port at Nanisivik, downgraded to a seasonal refueling station, underscores the urgency of these investments. Establishing permanent bases in Inuvik, Yellowknife, or Iqaluit, equipped with MQ-9B Reaper drones and Polaris patrol aircraft, would signal Canada’s commitment to Arctic security.
Globally, a robust defense posture would elevate Canada’s standing in NATO and other alliances like the Five Eyes, giving it a stronger voice in shaping international security policies. By meeting and exceeding NATO’s spending targets, Canada can counter criticisms of free-riding and position itself as a leader among middle powers. This is particularly crucial as new power blocs, such as BRICS, challenge Western dominance, requiring Canada to forge diverse partnerships with Europe, Australia, and others.
Addressing Challenges and Ethical Considerations
Financing the Increase
The financial implications of increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP are significant, with an estimated $150 billion annual cost by 2035. Critics argue that this could strain Canada’s budget, with only $90 billion of the federal budget considered discretionary. To address this, the government must pursue a balanced approach, as Carney has suggested, by reallocating funds, improving procurement efficiency, and avoiding immediate tax hikes. Investments in domestic industries could offset costs by stimulating economic growth, while public consultations, as Carney promised, would ensure transparency about trade-offs.
Public Support and Political Will
Public opinion on defense spending is mixed, with many Canadians prioritizing healthcare and social programs. However, growing global instability—32% of Canadians believe nuclear war is inevitable—may shift sentiment toward security investments. Carney’s framing of defense as economic renewal, rather than a zero-sum cost, could bridge this divide by emphasizing job creation and innovation. Political will is also critical, as past governments have announced ambitious defense plans only to delay implementation. Sustained leadership and bipartisan support are essential to maintain momentum.
Ethical and Strategic Risks
Increased defense spending must avoid perpetuating dependency on militarism or crowding out social programs. Ethical concerns, such as ensuring equitable recruitment and addressing biases in AI-driven defense systems, are also paramount. Canada must balance its military buildup with its commitment to peacekeeping and diplomacy, maintaining its identity as a middle power that promotes global stability.
A Roadmap for Canada’s Defense Future
To achieve a robust and self-reliant defense posture, Canada should prioritize the following:
- Modernize Arctic Capabilities: Invest in icebreakers, patrol aircraft, and permanent bases to secure the Arctic. Establish underwater surveillance stations and deep-water ports in the Northwest Passage.
- Streamline Procurement: Reform the NSS and other procurement processes to reduce delays and cost overruns, prioritizing Canadian and European suppliers.
- Enhance Personnel Recruitment: Address the CAF’s 14,000-personnel shortage by improving pay, training, and recruitment processes, particularly for cyber and technical roles.
- Diversify Alliances: Strengthen partnerships with Europe, Australia, and South Korea to reduce reliance on U.S. equipment and expertise.
- Invest in Emerging Technologies: Prioritize AI, cybersecurity, and quantum technologies to counter hybrid threats and enhance NORAD contributions.
Conclusion
Canada’s defense policy stands at a crossroads. The global security landscape, marked by great power competition, hybrid threats, and Arctic vulnerabilities, demands a significant increase in defense spending and a shift toward self-reliance. By boosting its military to 5% of GDP by 2035, Canada can protect its sovereignty, enhance its NATO contributions, and stimulate economic growth. Reducing over-dependence on the United States, through diversified procurement and stronger European partnerships, will ensure strategic autonomy in an era of transactional alliances. While challenges like financing and public support remain, the moral and strategic imperative to defend Canada’s values, territory, and future cannot be ignored. By investing in a modern, capable, and independent military, Canada can secure its place as a resilient and influential middle power in a rapidly changing world.
